Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet strategy, focus on 10-11 AM, using fair value gaps and Fibonacci levels for entry/stop adjustments, aiming for a minimum 3R risk-reward, and exit by 11 AM to maximize profits and minimize risks. 
 
 Look for Silver Bullet trades in the London Session, the New York AM Session, and the New York PM Session.

 
» The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. «
 
 
 In the 10:00 - 11:00 AM window expect highs and lows 
on the 1 minute chart around Micro-Quarter turns.

 
Reference: 

 

Tom Cotton │ Xi Jinping


»
Don’t take it the wrong way.
You guys seem smart, but you keep funding utterly dumb and clownish politicians in your country. 
What’s up with that? In China, Tom Cotton wouldn’t even be a village chief. «
 
President Xi Jinping, while meeting with US corporate leaders in Beijing. - March 2024

The French Road to Nuclear War │ V.I.P.S.

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The [U.S.] President [Joe Biden]
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (V.I.P.S.)
SUBJECT: On the Brink of Nuclear War
DATE:  March 24, 2024

Mr. President:

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops — roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached — into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.

 » From a military-technical point of view, we are certainly ready for nuclear war.
Our nuclear triad is more advanced than any other one. Everyone knows it, all experts do. «
Vladimir Putin, March 13, 2024.

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as (1) a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance; or (2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them “lawful targets” under the Law of War. Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia’s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting – naively – that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy/degrade its combat viability.

» In fact, it would be useful for the good of the cause for the restless French to send a few regiments to Neonaziland.
Their systematic destruction would not be the most difficult task, but the most important. 
And it will be a good lesson for the rest of Europe's restless cretins. «
 Dmitry Medvedev, March 20, 2024.

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members – NATO mandate or not – he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations – and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia. 
 
Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia’s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.

» REGULAR TROOPS from France, Germany and Poland have arrived, by rail and air, to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. «
 Pepe Escobar via Telegram, March 22, 2024.
 
We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas – hypersonic missiles, for example – its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO. 
 
In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”. Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron’s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – the more so, as elections draw near.
 

What Needs to Be Done
Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.
The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation. 

Monday, March 25, 2024

From Prison to Palace │ Senegal's Faye will destroy French Neocolonialism

Historical events are brewing in yet another West African country: Senegal is getting rid of the neocolonial dependence on its former metropolis France. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a charismatic opposition candidate who sought to break the treaty with France and improve relations with Russia won the presidential election last weekend. The 44-year-old was only freed from prison 10 days before. As part of his election campaign, Faye promised to review oil and gas deals with Western companies, including agreements with British Petroleum, Endeavor Mining and Kosmos Energy. The collapse of France's colonial empire in Africa continues. Hence the pitiful growl of Rothschild stooge Macron, who squandered the entire inheritance of the French colonialists.
 
 » The departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final 
cross on the entire system of French neocolonialism. «

Faye advocates a radical revision of relations between Senegal and France. And as part of this, Faye is going to follow neighboring Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to leave the French currency system by abandoning the CFA franc. And the French military will have to leave Senegal. Sensing something was wrong, Paris had already announced a little earlier that it was sharply reducing the military contingent in Senegal (probably so that it would not be so shameful later). In return, Faye promises to take a course towards rapprochement with Russia.
 

Thus, France's next major foreign policy defeat on the African continent looms on the horizon. Moreover, last year Senegal still was a servile French key player in the issue of the blockade of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, which had previously freed themselves from the influence of Paris. And the departure of Senegal from the CFA franc zone puts a final and fat cross on the system which brought huge profits to France and on which the entire system of French neocolonialism was essentially built. 
 

 » France is the equivalent of an overfed Chihuahua, and you don't want to get in the ring with the really 
beefed up Rottweilers, especially when they've been trained to eat overfed Chihuahuas their entire life. «
Scott Ritter - March 21, 2024.

And hence all of Macron’s current anti-Russian hysteria. He lost access to Niger's gold and uranium last year, and now, like a plucked rooster, understands that France is also losing to Russia. Ukraine for him is the last chance to spoil Moscow. He will be disappointed there too.
 

Sabbatai Zevi, Freemasonry, Dönmeh & the Turkish Republic │ Dejan Lučić

Turkey is ruled by the secret society Dönmeh. You can check this on the internet. They are Jews who converted to Islam in 1666. Mind you, 1666. Let me explain who they are. A guy called Sabbatai Zevi, a charismatic Jew, handsome, two meters tall, being familiar with magic, a good speaker, travels around Turkey. Although people know that he is a friend of the English, and keeps boasting how he will establish a Jewish state in the Ottoman Sultan's empire, he is supported by the Sufis, by the Kabbalists. Everyone admires him. So he has 50,000 followers, and the majority of them live in Thessaloniki.

 Enthronement of the false Jewish messiah 
Sabbatai Zevi in Smyrna (İzmir) in 1648.

The Sultan hears about this and orders his servants to arrest Sabbatai Zevi in 1666. He asks him: "You fool, do I hear that you're talking about establishing a Jewish state in my Empire of the Turks, how are you going to establish a Jewish state here? Who is spreading this nonsense? Are you insulting me? I will order my servants to cut off your head, since you are a subversive element." Sabbatai Zevi answered: "Hold on, dear Sultan, I want to tell you something. If you cut my head off, you will enrage the Jews in London, Paris, Berlin, who are all interconnected, and they will overthrow you, cutting your own head off. Your brother will become Sultan, or perhaps your son, while you and I will be headless. So let me make a suggestion: Spare my head, and I will do my best to restore your honor by neglecting stupidities that I talked about. I will denounce my Jewish faith and will publicly convert to Islam, I will say 'Allahu Akbar', I will bow and accept it." The Sultan smiled and said: "All right, do it!", and Sabbatai Zevi actually converted to Islam on September 16, 1666 and so did his 50,000 Jewish followers. Within five years the Sabbatean crypto-Jews were able to infiltrate every existing pore in the Ottoman state, and taking full control of it. And ever since, Turkey has been ruled by this secret society, the Dönmeh, comprised of Jews, who today number some 20,000, but are perfectly distributed. 

Is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Türkiye, really a Georgian, a Laz, a Greek, an Armenian, a Kurd, a snake, a Jew
a Dönmeh, a Freemason? Is he really an Israeli asset and all of his 'support for Palestinians' but empty talk? Who really cares.

Thus Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was born in Thessaloniki and educated in Bitola. He also probably spoke Serbian. A wise man. Of course a Freemason. The order of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite of the English amputated the Ottoman Empire, abolished the Caliphate, created a Turkish nation state, switched to the Latin alphabet and modernized Turkey. Since then, up until today, Turkey has been ruled by the Jewish Dönmeh. So Mr. Erdoğan, who says that he feels at home in Sarajevo and that Sarajevo and Priština are Turkish and so on, is a member of the secret society Dömneh just like his former Minister of Foreign Affairs – Abdullah Gül. All of you Bosniacs can easily check this. Contact your countrymen in Turkey, ask them via phone, Skype or Viber if that what this Dejan Lučić claims is true, that Erdoğan is actually a Jew.  
 
Quoted from:
Dejan Lučić (2016/2020) - Erdogan is a Freemason, member of Turkey’s secret society ‘Dömneh’.

 
 » Erdoğan is actually a Jew. «
Serbian-Yugoslavian historian Dejan Lučić, 2016.

See also
 

Prepare for April S&P Correction Now │ Allen Reminick

Short term, the S&P market is topping in the next two weeks.


We've been discussing the 18 year cycle and the 12 year cycle and the 24 year cycle, all having agreement since March 12th, where they all implied that the market would rally until Monday, March 25th or longer. There is a very good chance that is the beginning of a sideways phase that could last until as late as April 10th. We're not expecting a dramatic continuation on the upside. Potentially the market goes slightly higher between now and April 10th, but it's a topping phase. 
 

It's a down, up, down, up, down, up kind of pattern. And finally, in the later part of April, it should make a low. Between April 16th and the 24th of April. But it may gyrate and just do nothing much until it's ready to fall between April 10th and April 24th.

 
After that, of course, we're expecting to see further, higher prices until May 23rd , between 5,400 and 5,600. This could be completing the move that started October 27th of 2023.

Sunday, March 24, 2024

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.


This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.
 
 
 
THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 
 
This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  
 
Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 
 
The outlook for April is much brighter. 
 
  
Reference: 
 
[ oftentimes true: ]
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.
 
 
 
 
 

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | TomTheTrader

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 
 
 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:
 
This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is
93.22
Active fund managers are all-in.
 

Friday, March 22, 2024

500 Years of Western Dominance - What Comes Next | Glenn Diesen

Felix Abt: A great European religious war and the first pan-European conflict over superpower status came to an end in 1648. After 30 years of devastating wars and chaos, especially on German soil, with millions of deaths and shattered economies, the Peace of Westphalia brought a new, rules-based order to Europe, as the Western political class would call it today. This included the inviolability of borders and non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign and equal states; it is regarded as a milestone in the development toward tolerance and secularization. How did this affect the new powers that emerged afterward and their quest for hegemony?

Glenn Diesen: The lesson from the Thirty Years War (1618-1648) was that no one power could restore order based on hegemony and universal values, as the other states in Europe would preserve their own sovereignty and distinctiveness by collectively balancing the most powerful state. This was evident when Catholic France supported Protestant Sweden to prevent the dominance of the Catholic Habsburgs. The Peace of Westphalia in 1648 gave birth to the modern world order, in which peace and order depend on a balance of power between sovereign states. The Westphalian system prevents hegemony as other states collectively balance the effort of an aspiring hegemon to establish economic and military dominance, and universal values are rejected to the extent they are used to reduce the sovereignty of other states.

» The Westphalian system prevents hegemony. « 
The 1648 peace treaty between the parties in the Thirty Years' War established the Westphalian system.
 
The principle, known as the Westphalian principle of sovereignty, prohibits interference in the internal affairs of another state, and every state is equal before international law, regardless of its size. Thus, every state has sovereignty over its territory and its internal affairs, to the exclusion of all external powers. But when the European colonial powers used violence to impose their will on other continents, they violated this ideal. Was this the beginning of this principle’s demise?
 
The Westphalian system should in principle be based on sovereign equality for all states. However, it originated as a European security order that later laid the foundation for a world order. Under the original Westphalian system, the Europeans claimed special privileges and the principle of equal sovereignty for states did not apply to everyone. Sovereignty was deemed to be a right and a responsibility assigned to civilized peoples, a reference to the Europeans as white Christians. The international system was divided between the civilized and the barbarians. There was one set of rules for the Europeans in the civilized garden, and another set of rules when the Europeans engaged with the so-called despotic barbarians in the jungle. The interference in the internal affairs of other peoples and the development of vast empires was framed as the right and the responsibility of civilized states to guide the barbaric peoples towards universal values of civilization. This responsibility to govern other peoples was termed the white man’s burden and the civilizing mission.

 » The gardeners have to go to the jungle. «
Josep Borrell's universal mission.

In our current era, we have abandoned the civilized-barbarian divide, but we have replaced it with a liberal democracy-authoritarian divide to legitimize sovereign inequality. The West can interfere in the domestic affairs of other states to promote democracy, invade countries to defend human rights, or even change the borders of countries in support of self-determination. This is the exclusive right and a responsibility of the West as the champions of the universal values of liberal democracy. As the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell explained:
The gardeners have to go to the jungle. Europeans have to be much more engaged with the rest of the world. Otherwise, the rest of the world will invade us.

International law in accordance with the UN Charter defends the principle of sovereign equality for all states. The so-called
rules-based international order is based on sovereign inequality, which introduces special privileges under the guise of universal liberal democratic values. For example, the West’s recognition of independence for Kosovo was a breach of international law as it violated the territorial integrity of Serbia, although it was legitimized by the liberal principle of respecting the self-determination of Kosovo Albanians. In Crimea the West decided that self-determination should not be the leading principle, but territorial integrity. The US refers to liberal democratic values to exercise its exclusive right to invade and occupy countries such as Iraq, Syria and Libya, although this right is not extended to countries in the jungle.  

» The so-called “rules-based international order” is based on sovereign inequality, 
which introduces special privileges under the guise of universal liberal democratic values. «
In 1945 fifty countries established the United Nations System. With the help of this supra-national governance
system the Anglo-Frankish-Zionist-Dönmeh-Wahhabi-Takfiri elites of the UK, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the US and
some others, expected to secure their hegemonies beyond the foreseeable demise of traditional colonialism
The Bretton Woods conference, World Bank, IMF, nuclear bombing of Japan, dividing Korea 
and creating the State of Israel in Palestine are early show cases of what Pax Americana and UN are all about.

[...] The Ukrainian conflict is essentially an extension of American geopolitics, which aims to carry out Mackinder’s aforementioned stanza, He who rules Eastern Europe rules the world. What are your thoughts about it?

Preventing Germany and Russia from controlling Eastern Europe means that much of the Eurasian continent becomes landlocked. US control over Eastern Europe implies that Russia can not bridge Europe and Asia, but rather becomes an isolated land-locked region at the dual periphery of Europe and Asia.

Brzezinski outlined the strategy for developing and preserving US global primacy, which relies on the age-old wisdom of divide-and-rule. Brzezinski wrote that the US must
prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and keep the barbarians from coming together. Historically, the British and the Americans have worked to prevent Germany and Russia from coming together as it would form an independent pole of power. Hegemony requires conflict between Germany and Russia, as Germany becomes a dependent ally and Russia is weakened. This logic is also applied to why it is beneficial to perpetuate tensions between the Arabs and Iran, or between China and its neighbors. The US has been very concerned about the economic integration between the Germans and Russians, which is why the US was so hostile to the Nord Stream pipelines and most likely was behind the attack on these pipelines. 
 
 Anka Feldhusen, a fine example of a German Neonazi apparatchik of the 21st century.
March 22, 2023.
 
 Wehrmacht 2.0 south of Kiev. 
There will be hell to pay.
March 22, 2024.


The problem is that the world is no longer Western-centric and by pushing Russia away from Germany, the US has pushed Russia towards China – a technological and industrial power much greater than Germany. In the mid-19th century, the British fought against Russia in the Crimean War with the explicit purpose of pushing Russia back into Asia, where it would remain technologically and economically backward and stagnant. NATO’s war in Ukraine is a repeat of the efforts to push Russia back into Asia, although this time Asia is much more dynamic than the West. The failure of the West to adjust our grand strategy to this new reality has been a mistake of immeasurable proportions. We have not subordinated Russia, rather we ended Russia’s 300-year-long Western-centric policies in which Moscow looked to the West for modernization.

What is driving this stunning anti-Chinese obsession in the United States against a country that upholds the principle of non-interference in other countries, that used its mighty navy only for trade and not for gunboat politics when it was a superpower in the past, and that follows the millennia-old concept of “Tianxia” (天下), which literally means “everything under heaven”, that is, an inclusive world full of harmony for all?

China does not threaten the US, but it threatens US dominance as the foundation for the unipolar world order established after the Cold War. The US is currently attempting to weaken China through economic warfare, convincing its allies to decouple from the Chinese economy, and knocking out Russia in Ukraine as a vital partner of China. If the US fails to achieve its objectives, then it will likely stoke conflicts between China and its neighbors to make the neighbors more dependent and obedient, and also create instability for the Chinese that will bleed it of resources. The ideal would be greater tensions between India and China, as India would have to make itself more reliant on the US and it would be an important ally to weaken China. If all fails, then the US could also fight an indirect war through a proxy similar to the way they are using Ukrainians to fight Russia – by for example pushing for Taiwan’s secession. Besides securing its supply chains and building a military for deterrence, China should prioritize resolving its disputes with India as any friction with China can be exploited.

» This is a Westphalian system with Eurasian characteristics. « 
Since 2009 BRICS is establishing a Multipolar World Order based on Westphalian principles and controlled by the 
Eurasian great powers China, India and Russia. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS
on January 1, 2024. To date 15 more countries have formally applied to join.

Finally, in your new book you say that a new Westphalian world order is reasserting itself, albeit with Eurasian characteristics. Can you explain this in more detail?

We are returning to a Westphalian system based on a balance of power between sovereign states. However, the former Westphalian system was based on sovereign equality among the Western powers while the barbarians or despots outside the West were not deemed to be qualified for the responsibility of sovereignty. It was a dual system of collective hegemony of the West, with sovereign equality between the Western states. In the new Westphalian system, there are several powerful states that are not Western, with China as the leading economy in the world. The Eurasian powers such as China, Russia, India and others are developing the economic foundations for this system with new technologies, transportation corridors and financial instruments. The Eurasian powers are more prepared to include the Global South as sovereign equals. The Eurasian powers reject the so-called rules-based international order based on sovereign inequality, as Western dominance should not be legitimized by a civilized-barbarian or liberal democracy-authoritarian divide.

The Western powers over the past centuries have had an inclination for dominance and empire by controlling limited maritime corridors. Russia’s Eurasianism in the 19th century was a hegemonic strategy by dominating the Eurasian landmass through land corridors, although under the multipolar distribution of power the Russians do not have the capability or intentions to pursue hegemony. Instead, Eurasian integration entails moving from the dual periphery of Europe and Asia, to the center of a new Eurasian construct. Even China as the leading power does not have the capability or intention to pursue hegemony. Countries like Russia are content with China being the leading power, although they would not support China if it demanded dominance and hegemony. The Chinese demonstrate that they are not attempting to limit Russia’s economic connectivity with other states to make itself the only center of power. In the Global Civilization Initiative, the Chinese are also advocating for respecting civilizational differences and that all states have their own path to modernity, which implies that China is not claiming to represent universal values that legitimizes interference into the domestic affairs of other states. The West assumed that the Russia-China partnership was a marriage of convenience and that they would clash over influence in Central Asia, but this never happened because neither side demanded hegemony. Instead of sabotaging each other’s relations with the region, China and Russia harmonized their interests in Central Asia. China, Russia, India and other Eurasian powers have different visions and interests in terms of Eurasian integration, but they all need each other to realize their goals and pursue prosperity. Hegemony is not an option. This is a Westphalian system with Eurasian characteristics.

Quoted from:
 

See also: